Scotland were more efficient and took a 1-0 win that xG does not fully explain
Haiti had more of the ball, more shots and a higher xG, but Scotland settled the match with John McGinn's goal in the 28'. The 0-1 leaves a clear reading: the volume numbers favored the Caribbean side, but the visitors were more precise in the decisive area.
Haiti fell 0-1 to Scotland in the World Cup — Group stage, in a match where the final score does not quite match what the production metrics showed. Haiti finished with 1.2 xG, 54% possession and 15 shots, against 1.1 xG, 46% possession and 9 shots for Scotland; however, it was the visitors who found the goal and managed their lead.
Tactical read
The distribution of the ball and attacking volume suggests a fairly even game, but with a certain edge for Haiti. Having 54% possession and getting to 15 shots shows that the Caribbean side spent more time in the opposition half and generated more attempts. On top of that, their 1.2 xG was only slightly higher than Scotland's 1.1, so there was no massive gap in the quality of chances.
That said, the key stat is efficiency: Scotland turned their only lead on the scoreboard into John McGinn's goal in the 28', and then held the match from there. In terms of shots on target, it was perfectly balanced: 2 on target for each side. That reinforces the idea that the game was not decided by a flurry of chances, but by the ability to strike at the right moment.
It is also notable that Scotland finished with more bookings: 3 yellow cards compared to 1 for Haiti. Staying within the numbers, that suggests a visiting side more exposed to contact or forced to stop attacks, but it did not change the final result. The lineups, moreover, were tactically identical: 4-4-2 for Haiti and 4-4-2 for Scotland.
The standouts
The ratings paint a fairly balanced picture, with a couple of Scottish names at the top of the chart:
- Grant Hanley (Scotland): 7.7
- Lewis Ferguson (Scotland): 7.7
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (Haiti): 7.5
The fact that the two best ratings belong to Scotland helps explain why the team ended up defending a narrow lead so well. Hanley and Ferguson posted the highest individual marks, while Bellegarde was Haiti's best-rated player in a team that, despite producing more, could not turn that into a goal.
The turning point was John McGinn's strike in the 28'. That goal was enough to give Scotland the three points, and from there the match became shaped by Haiti's need to chase the result. With the game already tilted, the side that had had more possession and more shots could not find the equalizer.
In short, the 0-1 leaves a fairly clear conclusion: Haiti produced more volume, but Scotland were more efficient in the one play that broke the deadlock. The numbers do not show a huge advantage for either side, but they do show a decisive difference in execution.
